Everything is a system
There is a general debate that rages from time to time about whether or not you could ever create a winning system for betting. To us the answer is simple, yes you can, and in fact you wont be succesful without having one. However, the argument comes about whether or not there are intangible things that people can only pick up by having a human element to the betting. To some people, having a human element means that it isn't a system. We believe that the human element can be part of the system.
As an example, many form experts say that they could never pick a horse until they had seen it in the paddock before a race. They claim that there is just "something" about seeing the horse that will let them know whether it is likely to run well or not. To many people, this means that although a system could select the horses to look out for, the need for that human eye tolook over it means it is no longer a system bet.
This argument is purely semantic. There is no reason that the human element stops the effect of the system. A human calculation can be just as valid as any other e.g. ground, jockey, handicap etc. Thepoint is simply that this(looking at a horse int he paddock) is an aspect which should always be taken on board for that person to be successful.
Reduce the human elements
Although it is ok to have human elements as part of a system, I believe that the key to a successful system is to reduce the human element as much as possible. The reason for this is that the human element is the one that is most prone to psychological factors. Internal feelings about the possible outcome are likely to cloud the judgement rather than enhance it. Even factors such as your mood and energy levels are likely to affect the way in which you judge your betting, even totally subconsciously. Of course they don't, however, alter the outcome of the event - as you cant influence the likelihood of success.
Know why it should work
The other key to building a good system is to understand why your system should work. There has to be a reason why you can determine value that others cannot. As an example, I built a system which was based on understanding the effects of price changes in horse racing. The theory behind this was that many people see a price coming in and think "someone knows something, so I'll follow the crowd" and thus the price continues to shorten. The key to the system was to identify if it was possible to work out when a price had slipped too far and was value to lay, versus when a price was still shortening and would continue to shorten.
The important element about this is that I had an underlying theory about why I would be able to select a price that is good value. The bookmakers continued to change the prices based on the money coming in so that their books balanced, and I could select the right time to bet on particular situations.
If you ever find yourself in a situation where you cant explain why your system works then it probably wont work in the long run.
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